(by Peter Cramton, Simon Brandkamp, Hung-po Chao, Jason Dark, Darrell Hoy, Albert S. Kyle, David Malec, Axel Ockenfels, and Chris Wilkens)
We propose a forward market for energy. The new market promotes competition and innovation through improved forward trading, and improves investment incentives and resilience to extreme events, avoiding a costly and inefficient capacity market. The transition can be gradual and low-cost since core systems need not change. The new market products are financial derivatives of day-ahead energy, which is a derivative of real-time energy. Monthly forward energy is traded up to 12 × 4 = 48 months ahead by day type (weekday, weekend) and hour. Hourly forward energy is traded up to 24 × 30 = 720 hours ahead. Products are also differentiated by load zone to hedge congestion risk. Load-serving entities have a mandatory, yet flexible, schedule of purchase obligations, increasing linearly from 0 percent 48 months ahead to 100 percent of realized load day-ahead; dominant suppliers have a symmetric obligation to sell; otherwise, the market is voluntary. Renewable energy certificates (RECs) are included to manage renewable standards. Energy options allow forward purchase for extreme events, enhancing reliability and risk management. Forward reserves improve reserve procurement. These monthly and hourly products enable both sides of the market to establish forward positions to manage risk better. Trade occurs without friction with hourly clearing using flow trading (Budish et al., 2023). Flow trading allows participants to adjust portfolio positions efficiently among thousands of products as information changes. The approach identifies unique prices and quantities for the products that maximize as-bid social welfare. A full-scale simulation of Texas's ERCOT market offers proof of concept. A prototype market platform and participant tools confirm ease of implementation and participation.